Our Civilisational Moment

Our Civilisational Moment

Iran and Trump’s Fatal Miscalculation

John Lee's avatar
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John Lee and John Anderson
Jun 22, 2026
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Iran has attempted to develop nuclear weapons ever since the Ayatollah seized power in the 1979 revolution.

On 28th February, Donald Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran based on assessments that Tehran had enriched uranium to 60 percent which is a short technical step away from achieving the weapons’ grade level of 90 percent.

If true, Iran was only weeks away from developing a rudimentary but destructive nuclear bomb. For this reason, Trump should be commended for drawing an urgent redline of no nuclear weapons for Iran and responding firmly when the possibility of it being crossed was real and imminent.

We now have what appears to be a tenuous ceasefire based on conditions which fall well short of what Trump’s supporters and detractors would like when it comes to putting significant and enduring constraints on Tehran. It is too early to conclude whether Trump has meekly folded in what is still a drawn-out negotiation with Tehran.

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John Lee's avatar
A guest post by
John Lee
I’m a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC.
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